Peru’s exports saw a 3.1% drop year-on-year in November 2011, mainly due to the first signs of the deteriorated international conditions affecting trade, recording the first trade balance with negative figures of US$3mn after 33 months of consecutive growth, a report from Celfin Capital reads.
According to the report, the drop in total exports is mainly explained by a markedly fall in exports labeled as ‘traditional’ in which the volumes of metallic minerals and commodities prices were down such as copper, lead, and zinc.
The wrong trends
Celfin Capital foresees that this negative outcome may turn into a pattern during the first months of 2012 due to the strengthening of two key issues. The first one is related to internal disputes in the mining sector regarding to demands of an increase of wages in Cajamarca which –according to the report- may shake other regions and could have bearings on the investment plans to increase the ore grades of other exploitations. The direct effect will affect tax revenues. The second issue is that commodities prices are depicting a downward trend since the Euro Zone is going through a complex situation and no solution is expected in the short term. Celfin sees that the US dollar could get stronger against the Euro and commodities should follow the current downward trend.
Imports show positive numbers
In November, there was a 19.8% year-on-year expansion on imports, despite the slowdown due to a decrease on rates. Imports of consumption goods, inputs, and capital goods were up 19.6% YoY, 20.7% YoY, and 18.9% YoY; respectively.
Local currency nuevo sol current appreciation is favoring importers and made possible that the imported levels were sustainable during the last months, says the report. In the period Jan-Nov total imports were up 28.6% YoY, mainly explained by a strong growth of capital goods - surpassing slightly 30% YoY for the same period. Main products imported during November were TV sets, crude oil, mobile phones, and computers.
By MundoMaritimo
Source: Celfin Capital
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